The anxious anticipation for the first election result lingered longer than usual, as counting centers grappled with multiple ballots for councils, mayors, and police and crime commissioners. It was well past midnight on Friday morning when the first ward result flashed up, originating, as always, from Sunderland, renowned for its rapid vote counting. There was a significant swing from Tory to Labour in Sunderland’s Copt Hill ward.
As the early hours of the morning wore on, the flow of data increased from a trickle to a torrent, gradually forming an overall picture. It became evident that voters were eager to oust the Conservatives. However, who they preferred as an alternative was less clear.
Even before dawn, it was apparent that this would be one of the worst-ever results for the Tories in local elections. The governing party experienced substantial losses in seats throughout the night, particularly in areas where they were previously strong. Council after council confirmed the grim outlook suggested by polling data.
Labour’s first council gain occurred just after 2 am in Hartlepool, marking an early victory for Keir Starmer in the very place where a byelection defeat three years ago triggered a crisis in his leadership. Subsequent gains followed swiftly – Labour secured control in Thurrock and Redditch and eroded the Conservative majority in North East Lincolnshire – all areas with a strong leave vote and Westminster target seats. This trend persisted over three days of counting, with areas that had higher leave votes experiencing larger swings toward Labour. The electoral landscape was beginning to show signs of healing from the scars of Brexit.
While most councils only commenced their counts on Friday, the full extent of the Conservative defeat was slow to materialize, though a bleak pattern for the government had already emerged. The Tories were losing nearly half of all the seats they were defending – the worst rate of defeat since 1996, on the eve of Blair’s first landslide victory. The Conservatives lost more support in seats they were defending, with the main opposition party performing better. These patterns indicated a strong anti-Tory sentiment among voters.
Despite the united desire to remove the Conservatives from power, voters were divided over who should replace them. The local election results revealed a fragmented landscape, with substantial gains made by Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens in different parts of the country. Some of this was attributed to tactical voting, with voters rallying behind locally stronger parties. The Lib Dems, in particular, benefited from this trend, gaining over 100 council seats, especially in “blue wall” areas where they are the primary opposition to the Conservatives.
However, deeper currents were at play. In areas where the Tories were not competitive, voters also shifted in large numbers to the Greens, Reform UK, and local independents. This fragmentation underscored the electorate’s restiveness, with dissatisfaction toward the Conservatives, lukewarm enthusiasm for Labour, and openness to new alternatives evident.
The significant Green surge may pose a challenge for Labour, particularly if they assume control at Westminster. The Greens achieved their strongest-ever performance in local elections in terms of vote share, making substantial gains in Labour strongholds, such as Bristol, where they narrowly missed out on taking control of the council. This positions them to challenge Labour from the left in future local contests.
While Reform UK’s progress was more modest – fielding a limited slate of candidates and securing only two seats – their presence confirmed that they pose a significant threat to Tory prospects in general elections. The Conservatives saw further losses where Reform UK candidates competed, indicating that they siphoned off votes that might otherwise have remained conservative. This will be concerning for hundreds of Conservative MPs facing fresh challenges from Reform in seats where Nigel Farage withdrew Brexit party candidates in 2019.
However, even as opposition parties made gains across the board, signs of trouble emerged in Labour’s heartlands. The Labour vote declined in early-reporting wards in Newcastle with large Muslim populations, contrary to expectations. As more results were tallied, it became evident that tensions over Gaza were exacting an electoral toll, with challengers campaigning on the issue making significant inroads into Labour’s support in northern towns and cities with sizable Muslim communities. Labour lost control in Oldham and saw their deputy leader defeated in Manchester, while many others narrowly retained their positions.
Discontent was not confined to Muslim communities alone; Labour’s support also softened in remain strongholds and student districts, hinting at potential challenges from the party’s progressive left flank in the future.
Despite some clouds on the horizon, the overall outlook remained positive. A high point came as dawn broke on Friday, with the declaration of the result of the Westminster byelection in Blackpool South. Labour reclaimed the seat with a massive 26-point swing, marking the third-largest swing ever recorded.
While overnight counts brought relentless gloom for the Conservatives, there was a rare glimmer of hope as Ben Houchen secured comfortable re-election for a third term as Tees Valley mayor. Tories seized on this as a sign of life in the “red wall,” and the prime minister personally congratulated Houchen soon after.
However, even as the PM and mayor exchanged tributes, the tally of defeated Tory councillors continued to rise. Further bad news followed for the government in the hours after Houchen’s victory, as Labour secured significant wins in the new mayoralties of the North East, the East Midlands, and in York and North Yorkshire, including rural areas traditionally considered Conservative strongholds. Rishi Sunak now faces a Labour mayor in his constituency.
The two most prominent contests of the week were also mayoral races in the West Midlands and London. Tory hopes of an upset in London quickly faded as Sadiq Khan clinched victory, while Andy Street, although outperforming his party, narrowly lost in the West Midlands after a nail-biting recount. Street’s defeat dampened Tory hopes raised by Houchen’s win, but neither result has significant implications for the general election. Both candidates downplayed their Tory affiliations and successfully framed their campaigns as referendums on their personal performance.
To gauge future developments, attention should be paid not only to the few big Tory names that survived, such as Houchen, but also to the hundreds of lesser-known figures who did not. This was unquestionably the Conservatives’ worst performance in local council elections for a generation. The tide continues to recede for Rishi Sunak’s government, with time running out.